FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 23rd April

Thin old card tomorrow at Ascot. Rail in the true and strong easterlys forecast traditionally err on the side of wanting to be on-speed, but that combination hasn’t weighed too much on the track pattern of late, could pay to monitor early, track to me starting to show signs after a long season it could be a little tired.

Race 1 – 11:48AM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET PLATE (1000 METRES)

1. Swear To God – 4. Miss Drakova – 7. Balayage Babe – 5. Sesswa

Race 2 – 12:28PM BELHUS RACING STABLES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Staralign – 3. God Has Chosen – 4. Ex Sport Man – 6. Denim Pack

Race 3 – 1:08 PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

2. Special View – 3. Blow Me Out – 1. Recapitulate – 5. Kaymay

Special View

Think this is terrific placement by Ballantyne and terrific use of the claim with Jett Stanley taking the ride. Just went far too hard out in front last start when eyeballed throughout by Misty Lad (10L above benchmark for the first 600m). He never came up for air, and to only be beaten by just over 2.5L I thought there was plenty of merit in the performance. He drops back in grade here, only gets in with half a kilo extra after the claim for Jett and should be able to find the top here on his ear, think this is a terrific opportunity for Jett to boot home another Saturday winner after Buster Bash last weekend. The $5.50-6.00 on offer is very likeable (marked $3.30).

2 Units WIN 

Race 4 – 1:44PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

6. Aragain – 7. Hezapro – 5. Arno The Fox – 4. Trade War

Aragain

Went 1st up no trial into the main form race for this (behind Lonehand Larry), sat just in behind the speed in running off that brutal tempo they set, and battled on really well in the straight given the lack of conditioning, actually thought she travelled into the race super and was entitled to be swamped late. Run under the belt, comes here 2nd up, maps to find the top very softly here for Holly who I’m anticipating (hoping) gets rolling from the 600m to really test a few of these. Seems to be flourishing under Brian Kersley’s care and to me can run a very cheeky race at a double figure quote.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Race 5 – 2:24PM THE CARBINE CLUB OF WA HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Mercanto – 3. Timely Outburst – 7. Michelada – 5. Night Voyage

Mercanto

Immensely talented horse for the Gangemi stable, 1000m might be a touch on the shorter side for him but this isn’t a deep 66+. Had just the one trial, was a soft hit out (I thought) under Brad Parnham. Immensely talented, went straight from CL3 to this grade last prep where he was desperately unlucky behind La Farola and God Has Chosen, he finished off there as well as anything. Has a terrific fresh record, if CJP can get him on the back of a horse like Guns Of Navarone and keep him off the fence, I don’t think they can hold him out. Have a few question marks around the very well-backed favourite Timely Outburst before I want to be backing her again, especially at a smidge over even money. Michelada the main danger, maps a treat and going very well.

2 Units WIN

Race 6 – 2:59PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Success Play – 4. Galactic Storm – 1. Pat’s Got Sass – 5. Green And Shady

Race 7 – 3:37PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. State Attorney – 6. How’s The Serenity – 4. Chantorque – 7. Charleton Eddie

State Attorney

How’s The Serenity is a really nice sprinter on the rise, and is more than capable of taking this out but there are a few variables here that to me, have her strong enough unders at the $1.85 to look elsewhere. Under Michael Grantham, this horse has been completely reborn. Terrific win 1st up over this trip before dropping back to the 1000m when unbelievably, not getting a diving photo behind Express Time, who has since come out and won again last Saturday. That last start effort rated huge on figures, I love that form and he’s only penalised 0.5kgs at the weights. Drawn the pin, Johnston Porter can have him cuddled up 3 back the fence for when the sprint comes on, this horse loves a soft draw! If the gaps appear he’s more than capable the way he’s going and at the current prices ($5.00, marked $3.60), happy to get involved.

1 Unit WIN

Race 8 – 4:12PM WESTSPEED PLATINUM AUTUMN FINAL (1200 METRES)

4. Point Taken – 1. Scandolo – 2. Snipillicious – 12. Lord Lonsdale

Westspeed Platinum finals are big fields, usually very messy races with heaps of speed influences, means they can set up very nicely for horses that get back, 3/4 wide with cover who can swoop over the top.

Point Taken ($17.00) and Lord Lonsdale ($11.00) are two horses who are drawn to, and are more than capable of doing just that.

Point Taken put in a strong run last start when parked deep throughout, entitled to fold up a little bit late. She’s 3rd up now, reunited with Laqdar, if he can find that 3 deep moving line with cover and the conditions are suiting, she’s more than capable of  blousing them here, her best is above this.

Snipillicious was superb fresh in a very high rating Westspeed event. Sat behind the speed and once clear he burst away from them almost effortlessly although it can be said, Premium Choice would’ve been having his say at the finish with any luck (in my opinion). They had plenty on the rest of them. Maps for almost an identical run here up to the 1200m, but the question I beg, is he just a freshy? Deserves to be outright favourite from the barrier, would love to know if keeping him fresh (comes here a month between runs) was intentional or there was a little mishap along the way. Can definitely win but the $3.30 is of no interest.

Scandolo is a different horse with the shades, and the blinkers go on here. Holly takes off 2kgs, going back through his form, he’s beaten home Express Time (outstanding form now, and had the blinkers on that day) and run 2nd in a Fitzpatrick Plate to Kia Ora Star. That sort of form more than stacks up here, he should get a nice enough run here midfield or even a little better than from barrier 5, double figures is over the odds, however his 2nd up record is concerning.

Race 9 – 4:52PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. Harmika – 4. Warm N Fuzzy – 3. Speed Dream – 1. False Statement

Staking Plan

• Race 3 Special View 2 Units WIN
• Race 4 Aragain 1 Unit EACH WAY
• Race 5 Mercanto 2 Units WIN
• Race 7 State Attorney 1 Unit WIN

Unenthusiastic card, these runners pose the value on a low-confidence day, 7 units staked.

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