FREE: Ascot Selections: Saturday 15th October

Really good card of racing greets us on Eurythmic Stakes day, with the Eurythmic and the Crawford the traditional kick-off points for many heading towards our G1 Railway and Winterbottom Stakes. Fresh inside pad with the rail at 6m after being at 12m mid-week, similar conditions to last weekend, anticipating it will be difficult to make ground early in the day but race 1 looks a nice race to sit back and see if there is an inkling of a pattern.

Race 1 – 12:36PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1400 METRES)

3. All The King’s Men – 5. Upper Limits – 8. Sesswa – 2. Saintorio

All The King’s Men a $2.25 favourite in the opener and although I have him on-top seems grossly unders.

Early in the day, fresh inside pad not used at the midweeks, could be the hot lanes early and he will end up out the back here given he isn’t a great beginner from the barrier. Up to 1400m is a tick and think he has the most upside of this bunch off his terrific win 1st up against the older horses, but he will certainly have some ground to make up and may not get conditions to suit.

Upper Limits a query at 1400m, but looks your leader here and last preparation was beaten under a length Top Of The Pops and Vampi At Play at 1200m and we know certainly know the strength of that form, if the field size stays as is he can run you an each way race I think

Saintorio on a Guineas path, if they had intent and wanted to get to the breeze then he would be an easy bet for me here but don’t think they will want to knock him around with the grand final still to come, so happy to just watch him at $5. Tricky little start to the day, could be a good one to sit back and watch the pattern.

Race 2 – 1:19PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HEAT 1 (1200 METRES)

2. Ain’t No Other Man – 1. Dance Cockey – 8. Halatorion – 9. Requisition

Ain’t No Other Man

Not proud of myself with this one. You can certainly say he keeps turning it up ANOM, but the form through him just keeps stacking up, its amazing. Grabbed late when looked home last start by Defending who went super last Saturday in much higher grade than this, beaten a length Karli’s Karma the start prior, that form absolutely streets these. Maps to land 1×1 again here, on that alone just had to mark him favourite and he’s come up over my price again. New jockey could be a positive, don’t mind the fact they have tried something different with Taj jumping aboard.

I was 2.80, and there was 3.80 available yesterday so that price has evaporated, but still feel $3.30+ is enough to have something on to lose with some dignity when he ultimately lets one come past him late.

2.5 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP

The other that interests me is Dance Cockey

Thought it was curtains when he was crossed last start in a 66+ but he was terrific to come through again late for 3rd. Drops sharply in grade here, finds a race where he should be able to roll to the top in his most favoured role or just park in behind them if they really take him on with a Sneaky Fox. Think this is great placement and it could be more than advantageous to be on-speed early in the day on Saturday. I marked him single figures, he opened $21, sat around $16 for a while and still some $14 available, I think that’s overs.

0.5 Units WIN View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:55PM JAYDE KINANE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

4. Tri For Us – 1. Buster Bash – 2. Sluice Box – 7. Crescent City

Tri For Us

Think Tri For Us looks primed here 3rd up.

Hope Lucy makes a quick recovery not being able to take the ride after the events in the last yesterday, but her two runs so far this preparation have been huge. Gone back from wide draws, hit the line and thought her last 100m in her most recent over the mile was the perfect platform for the step out to the 1800m 3rd up. Loves racing at Ascot, 1 from 1 at the track and distance, should be nearing her top now, she doesn’t have to get so far back here from the draw they can hold up midfield with a couple behind her and think if Knuckey can keep the leading pair within striking distance who should be rolling along at a strong tempo, confident she can pick them up late.

2 Units WIN

Native Chimes might prove a bit of a pest for the apprentice on Buster Bash which could mean they overcook it and could leave him a little vulnerable late but he’s much better suited out to 1800m and clearly the hardest to beat. Hasn’t been seen off the 7 days so it is a new formula for him. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 4 – 2:38PM CONQUER CYSTIC FIBROSIS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

10. Laced Up Heels – 5. Lexington City – 1. Our Wind Spirit – 8. Street Parade

Think that 3yo Classic form will stack up, but it is an interesting approach they have taken here with Laced Up Heels.

She was a monster run in that race last Saturday. Beaten 2L at the finish, held up until the 150m and showed she has a serious motor under the hood. Hugely positive jockey change with Brad Parnham jumping aboard, the big query is how she handles the 7 day back up as a sprinter after a big run on a very firm/fast track, particularly an inexperienced 3yo sprinter at that, which is not something I’m personally very big on. If she does and she gets clear galloping room, I think she picks these up in a race with good tempo. I was $3.00, and although she’s over my price I’m not going guts in as a result of the potential red flag for a young sprinter off the 7 days, if that makes sense.

If she isn’t winning, I think Lexington City looks the clear next best. Really speedy horse, recent trial perhaps a bit iffy? Wasn’t enthralled by it but wasn’t wearing Blinkers and gets them on here. His 2 career wins to date has been given soft leads and think there could be some pressure here. 3yo form through Sneaky Chance/Hardly Ever and Metallon reads up nicely, he’s quick and should be able to cross which is never a bad place to be at Ascot over the short course, stable another just starting to get warm. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 3:15PM PROJECT BUILDING SUPPLIES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

7. Yemen Lass – 8. George Gently – 5. Stylax – 1. Powerful View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:50PM BALLPOINT CONSTRUCTION HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

12. Swear To God – 5. Hint Of Mint – 8. Written Matter – 6. Phoneme

Swear To God

Swear To God is going to be the big talking point here on profile and rightfully so I think, and although this is actually quite a strong field, he gets a really nice set-up.

Russell Stewart was big before his 1st up run that he would be much better suited 2nd up at 1200m, just bumped into a very smart one fresh and still absolutely streeted the rest of that field when still not offered a real clean run at it in the straight. All of the speed in this race is drawn outside him, Hibiscus Lady/Agent Jay both drawn to his outside so I think he can get across very cheaply from 10 and lob in a lovely spot on-speed or just parked in behind them. Gets some weight off his back, senior jockey back on who knows him well in Laqdar, I think he looks very hard to beat and although he’s no good thing as there are some more than handy types up against him, $3.30 upwards and I’m happy to have a good bet on him, will just be holding fire for now and waiting for the wonderful tool that is Betfair.

3 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP

*If Swear To God jumps 2.50 or potentially even shorter*

Hint Of Mint

I’m happy to have something small each way on Hint Of Mint. Nice winner on WA debut at Northam, going back through her form and having a look at where she has come from, some of her form over east is truly Stakes quality. The stable is flying, should park right behind the speed from the barrier for Brad Parnham who’s riding super himself, she’s over my price currently at $12.

0.5 Units EACH WAY if Swear To God jumps under our bet price. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 7 – 4:25PM FURPHY – R.S. CRAWFORD STAKES (1000 METRES)

16. Wilchino – 10. Miss Conteki – 4. Nerodio – 14. Panzdown

Some will say Wilchino can’t win from 16 over the 1000m, but I think she can. She’ll need some luck and to begin like a rocket sure, but if she can get across Indian Pacific (who I have a feeling given their history may opt out of trying to sit at the girth of #Merv) and just park in behind Mervyn with Miss Conteki 4 back the fence, she’s the one I’d want to be on. She gets in really well at set weights and penalties, is the best 1000m horse in the field in my opinion and there are genuine queries surrounding virtually every other runner in the field. Her obvious one is the barrier, but it ultimately comes down to what price you’d be willing to take the gamble with, she gets out to $5.50-6 late and I’m betting.

Same scenario with Miss Conteki. Map punters take her on and rightfully so, I cant get her any better than 4 back the fence, she gets out to $6 late and I’m betting as well, because if she does get luck and does get a split she can explode right over the top of these there’s no doubt in my mind, but ultimately it’s the risk vs the reward, more so than most in a race like this with some many factors in play and angles to it.

Nerodio the forgotten horse I think. He’s come of age quite simply and is no longer pigeon-holed as a Belmont winter wet tracker. He’s a bomb fresh, bomb at the 1000m and if the gaps appear much like Miss Conteki, no surprise to see him blousing them. Little red flag for me though that the Pads go back on after his winter campaign.

Race 8 – 5:03PM CROWN PERTH – EURYTHMIC STAKES (1400 METRES)

11. Comfort Me – 5. Resortman – 9. Last Of The Line – 8. Titan Blinders

2 key winning chances here for me, and won’t be disappointed if something else here beats me, I think this race sets up so well for both Comfort Me and Resortman.

Comfort Me 

Comfort Me has been trialling the house down and maps for the absolute gun run here in the one-one. Love how he is travelling. A little wary the Railway is the Grand Final and in the past he has taken a run or two to hit his straps, but he’s had the two trial blowouts and am confident will be forward enough. This is a horse that ran 2nd in a Railway Stakes from barrier 15 beating home Kissonallforcheeks mind you, he’s one of mine and think he’s in for a terrific campaign and according to Rhys Radford had some very genuine excuses as to why he wasn’t his true self last prep when he was disappointing.

3 Units WIN

Resortman 

Resortman is absolutely flying, and unlike most of these who are beginning Railway campaigns, he’s here with genuine intent to win. Has had a month between runs following the Farnley but had a trial hit-out in between to keep him ticking over and it was one of the best trials you will see, Rawiller couldn’t have held him together any more coasting to the line alongside Devoted, who we will touch on shortly. Can hold a position from barrier 2 here and as the rock hard fit, in form horse, he ticks a lot of boxes.

Happy to back/save the pair.

1 Unit WIN

Last Of The Line the roughie that usually takes a run to really come on but his recent trial was outstanding. Brad Parnham takes the ride for SJ Miller and drawn well, wouldn’t surprise if he ran a huge race fresh.

Race 9 – 5:39PM THE QUOKKA SLOT APPLICATIONS CLOSE 26 OCT HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. Devoted – 9. Solaia – 1. Trix Of The Trade – 5. Billy Ray

Devoted

No surprises here. Bit of rinse and repeat from last week, fingers crossed with a happier ending…

We see the return of Devoted here in the last after putting 3 in a line over winter and to be honest, I really couldn’t tip you into anything else.

Both trials have been outstanding and although they are claiming 3kgs here, love the fact that Taj got a sit on him in that most recent trial and got a feel for him, really began well there underneath him and they looked to get on well. Bolted in fresh over this trip last prep in this grade before taking out the Raconteur and then the Belmont Guineas, with that form more than stacking up since. Looks your map horse, should lob right behind the speed from the draw, I have him landing 1×1 on the back of Brooklyn Pier who is going very well and should take him a long way and think this is a terrific opportunity for Taj to be booting home a Saturday winner.

$2.00 is starting to get on the thin side of things, I was hovering around $2.40-2.50 and think that is enough to be having a crack at a horse that just continues to elevate each time we see him and is currently your 2nd favourite in the All-In Railway Stakes market.

4 Units WIN @$2.40+ BSP

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Ain’t No Other Man 2.5 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP/Dance Cockey 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 3 Tri For Us 2 Units WIN
• Race 6 Swear To God 3 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP. If we don’t see that price, happy to be on Hint Of Mint 0.5 Units EACH WAY
• Race 8 Comfort Me 3 Units WIN/Resortman 1 Unit WIN
• Race 9 Devoted 4 Units WIN @$2.40+ BSP

6.5 Units locked in, potential for a 16 unit day if we see our bet prices, holding fire on a few for now with some prices chipped away over the past 24 hrs.