FREE: Ascot Selections: Day 2 of The Pinnacles Railway Stakes Day, Saturday 19th November

Lets put Day 1 behind us…onto Day 2. Railway Stakes Day is upon us and a tricky, competitive betting card we have been dealt. Some rain around has us on a soft 7 at the time of writing, before improving to a soft 5/6 by the time race 1 rolls around Saturday afternoon with the rail back to the true. Hoping this rain helps even the surface out as we know how big the bias was last week in that to win, you had to settle in the first 5.

Race 1 – 12:05PM MAGIC MILLIONS – CRYSTAL SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)

2. Home James – 12. Soaring Solo – 4. I’m On – 11. Rubick Lass

Home James

Of the unraced brigade, I was really taken by the trial of Home James, a 2yo gelding by sire Maurice. Loved the way he made up ground in a really slick trial late under very little urgings by Brad Parnham, was as impressive a 2yo trial I think that you’ll see. As a result of the draw, we are getting a price and we saw something similar with Brave Halo both on debut and at his 2nd start when drawn awkwardly on paper, he didn’t show much early speed at the trials but really impressed with how well he closed off and this gives me the vibe of something similar, wouldn’t surprise me to see him hunt forward under Brad Parnham to try find a spot on him. I marked him favourite, thought he looked very smart and is an easy bet for me at each way odds.

1 Unit WIN 

Soaring Solo

Had something on this galloper at the early price. Her recent 400m trial took me, thought it was very slick and love the draw for her in 3 to come out running. Looks a really speedy jump and run type for Colin Webster and think she will acquit herself very well on debut.

0.5 Units WIN

Platinum Shot trialled super, just don’t necessarily like the Monday trial into Saturday race formula for a debutant. Rubick Lass has trialled up stylishly too without being asked for much of an effort in either of those 400m jump outs while I thought I’m On was very good last start, just have a bit of a query on the quality of 2yo flesh she got past there late. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 2 – 12:45PM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

9. Truly Inspired – 6. Coolth – 4. Zadar Rock – 1. Off Wego

Truly Inspired

Bit of a theme of the day on Saturday across a number of races, this looks a race with really good tempo on paper engaged and think that if William Pike can keep Truly Inspired out of trouble and in clear air, he is going to be terribly hard to beat.

It was only a CL1, but the figure he posted and the manner in which he did so was that of a horse much, much better than that grade. Sat midfield in a race run 5.5L above average to the 1000m for the Ascot 1800m, got moving around them 3 wide at the 600m and the ease with which he was able to circle them and get to the front without Pike yet asking for an effort was that of a really good horse (He’s bred to be one too, being a full brother to G1 winner Truly Great). Loved the way he finished off and love the platform Bob has given him prior to getting out over this trip he faces Saturday, fresh at the mile and 2 runs at the 1800m. He will be rock-hard fit and only looks to be progressing the more racing he gets under his belt as a lightly raced 6yo (For Bob to hold onto a 6yo that has only been to the races 7 times, he must really like what he has to offer). Think Pike just has to keep him off the fence midfield and in a race that looks to have really strong tempo engaged, can be finishing over the top of them with a few of these on-speeders I expect to be really paddling late.

3.5 Units WIN

Coolth brings X factor, coming across for the McEvoy’s for a last ditch Perth Cup prep. Has developed a bit of a nonny tag over East (Has been rolled numerous times at short quotes) but does bring some very solid form all the same in deeper races. Has to be very much respected. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:25PM DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

4. Beads – 2. Acromantula – 9. Pixie Chix – 3. Flying Missile

Very high pressure five furlongs with an abundance of speed engaged. With Olga Louisa, Acromantula, Lexington City and Flying Missile all engaged, the sparks will be flying. In saying that, this was still a very difficult race to dissect.

Thought if they do overdo it a bit upfront, which I think there is a strong likelihood of occurring, Beads with some luck from the gate can be going very close. Super consistent 1000m sprinter, was a winner fresh in 3yo grade over this trip carrying the 59.5kgs in a race run at a farcical tempo last preparation and never saw daylight until passing the 150m boxed away on the fence. Last time we saw him in this grade he went around a $3.50 2nd elect to Nowhiteflag in the market, sat in the breeze outside a flying Warm N Fuzzy at the time and was super brave, I think he’s a far better horse with a bit of cover. Was actually going away from the favourite Flying Missile on the line there, who he meets 2.5kgs better off here for having beat him home. With the speed engaged, McGruddy can come out positive to try find a back to follow to take him into the race and with a bit of luck, he can be climbing over them late.

Really like the O’Donnell booking for Pixie Chix here, we’ve seen O’Donnell first time work with so much success over a long period of time and suspect his riding style will compliment her racing pattern in a high pressure 1000m scamper. Although 6 weeks between runs, she’s raced really well off a very similar freshen up in the past, just think with the tempo engaged she has shown she can absorb a fast tempo and still display her turn of foot she possessses. If the leaders undo each other here with Olga Louisa trying to cross Acromantula and Lexington City with Flying Missile likely happy to let those 3 unfold, she’ll be flashing at them late. Tough race. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 4 – 2:05PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Big Bada Boom – 8. Trade War – 15. Zephyra – 2. Written Matter

Toughest race of the day to dissect for me this one, very even contest and another race that looks have some really solid tempo on paper.

Written Matter was a really good winner last start at 1200m after doing some work early to get across from wide gate. Was suited by the pattern there but also convincing in how he kicked away from them. Rises 2.5kgs at the weights, drawn well but there will be more pressure here with the speed that will come across from out wide, still have a few queries he runs out a strong 1400m but is drawn to get every favour to see it out.

Alsephina is 7 weeks between runs and it looks like it could be a pretty sticky little map for Pike to navigate from the draw. This is the most weight she has carried in her career to date in what looks a really decent test of a field for her with some sneaky depth to it. There is plenty to like about her, big upside, a winner (5 from 7) and has posted strong figures throughout the journey, I’ve got enough queries to suggest $4.80 isn’t value and as a result I’m going to take her on here on the weekend.

Trade War finds another really suitable race reunited with Chris Parnham dropping weight, just hates the winning post. He’s over my price and will most likely suck me in again for a small play, I love how strong he was at the end of a really genuinely run 1400m last start but not one for the feint hearted.

Downforce if they can make ground down the middle a blowout chance, really liked his return at an unsuitable trip and a more than unsuitable track pattern to boot, traditionally improves massively 1st to 2nd up and really liked both his trials prior to that fresh effort.

Zephyra mystified me 1st up, just didn’t let down like I thought she would. Trial prior to that was awesome, didn’t step there or at her fresh effort so where does she end up from barrier 1 here? Much better suited out to 1400m and with the Blinkers going on, it wouldn’t surprise to see her bounce back but if she can’t hold a spot and utilise her gate, it could get very tight for room at stages. That Belmont winter form yet to truly stand up.

Big Bada Boom is over my price at $16. Thought he was really good 1st up when not suited by the race or the pattern of the day and think Roy’s are just starting to get warm. Won’t lead here but with luck could get to the breeze cheaply and from there think he will run you a terrific each way race. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 2:45PM CROWN PERTH – JUNGLE MIST CLASSIC (1200 METRES)

5. Sniparoochy – 11. Real Grace – 13. Baby Paris – 10. Gunmetal Grey

Sniparoochy

This very talented mare has come back in superb order off the back of that 1st up win. Sat in the breeze outside Acromantula with 58.5kgs and was still able to reel off the fastest L200m split of the race going away from them on the line. She’s better suited at 1200m, drawn another peach of a gate and gets down to 55kgs here. Suspect Brad Parnham either finds the top with ease or is happy to take the trail if they really ride Express Time/Baby Paris with aggression as there isn’t a great deal of other speed engaged here. Think she looks very hard to beat, marked her 2.60, love to see some big BP money and she gets out to 2.90-3s late and we can have a real crack. I know SJ has always had huge opinion of her, suspect if she was to win well here they might have a crack at seeing if she could gain a start (doubtful) in a Winterbottom  on the back-up and if she could draw a gate. Holding fire for now, hoping to see a little wobble.

3.5 Units WIN @$2.60+ BSP

The other runner well over my price at $12 is Real Grace. Had no luck last start in a 66+ behind Written Matter when she looked to have plenty to offer (Hasn’t had much luck at all this preparation to tell you the truth). Reunited with Pike, has shown she can race tractably and if she was able to hold up midfield with a cushy run in transit, she could make things very interesting at the finish. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:25PM CARBINE CLUB OF W.A. STAKES (1400 METRES)

7. Devoted – 4. Comes A Time – 5. Minsk Moment – 11. Em Tee Aye

Devoted

Competitive edition of the Carbine Club and I am keen on the favourite, but will be erring slightly on the side of caution.

Had him going for a really good result in the Railway so lets hope he can soothe some of that pain my pockets are feeling here by getting us some back. Did all the grunt work last week in the Peters, towed up the 3 wide moving line throughout, a task made even more difficult by the bias and to still be beaten only 1.3L at the finish running home in clearly the best late splits of the race, it was a massive effort and thats where the concern lies, could such a big performance leave him vulnerable to potentially falling flat here on the 7 day spin?

I’m still in his corner, anticipate Pike knows full well where his main dangers are likely to be in running, will know Comes A Time drawn alongside him will likely try find a position, gives him the option to tag him across to find some cover and think if he can land on the back of a horse like Comes A Time who will take him right into the race, he is going to be very hard to beat. Just find some cover William.

3 Units WIN

Comes A Time

Hasn’t been blessed by the barrier gods this prep but simply won’t be losing on him, he’s flying and just gets so well in here under SWP.

Has come through different formlines through the Prince Of Wales and the Colonel Reeves, thought he has been super in both efforts and particularly love in both those performances, he really only looked to be getting warm over the last 100m, suggesting he is ready for the step to 1400m 3rd up, quite keen this is the trip he is looking for now. Will need some luck from where he’s drawn but love that Harvey sticks, can see him riding him positively out of the gates, getting him across and finding him a spot. Not sure if he has a horse like Devoted on his back he can sprint with him, but with a tactical advantage I certainly think he will acquit himself very well.

1 Unit WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 7 – 4:05PM SKY RACING – W.A. GUINEAS (1600 METRES)

15. Amelia’s Jewel – 6. Bustler – 2. Saintorio – 3. All The King’s Men

What an edition of the WA Guineas.

Amelia’s Jewel is one of two filly’s in the race and doesn’t she have some hype around her. Did what she had to do 1st up in a race where the form hasn’t been franked, and then made significant improvement 2nd up although defeated, she ran a super figure. Drawn here with her main dangers on either side, I think we most likely see Pat try tag one of them in running as Bustler/All The King’s Men seem to have slightly better gate speed than she does (although she is no slouch). Gets 2kgs on the boys, just looks your mapped horse with even luck and don’t think a mile will be too much of an issue for her. I marked her favourite in my market and had her on-top from a tipping sense, but will I be backing her at $2.25? The answer is no, these boys are going to keep her very honest and that is bare-bones.

Bustler hasn’t done anything wrong or anything to suggest he won’t be right there in the finish of this year’s WA Guineas.

Love the way he dug in last start to get past All The King’s Men on the post, he’s just a winner. The road does have to end somewhere, but think with the draw and the feel that he will handle stepping up to the 1600m, he is going to be awfully hard to beat again. Steve Parnham will know his dangers are all around him and be sure to let him get into a rhythm and keep him off the fence/away from any bad luck throughout. At $4.80, that’s where I’ll most likely go for a bet (Do we potentially see even more late?)

Saintorio connections would have been heartbroken with the draw, as he still is a live chance but that would have only been heightened if he drew a gate. Super win over the mile last start taking on the older horses. Sat on speed on a very genuine tempo and still reeled off the 2nd quickest L200m of the race to the line after absorbing that pressure mid race. Well and truly ticked the box of running out a genuine 1600m. Few whispers later this week we may see him ridden a bit quieter from the gate, which I don’t mind, but at the end of the day if he leaves the machines as well as he has been and he’s got Man Crush trying to get across him, Brad may have no other option but to follow him over. Gets 1.5kgs swing on All The King’s Men for being beaten half a length over the 1400m the last time they met, he’s going to need an absolute special from Brad Parnham but with luck, he is in this up to his eyeballs.

All The King’s Men was huge in the Fairetha when nosed by Bustler on the post and has always given me the feel as a horse he would be better getting over a mile and potentially even further. Was just as good a run as the winner there, gave him the cart up into the race when having to do some work approaching the corner when they quickened. Still has to the tick the box (much like Bustler) of being able to run out a strong 1600m and most likely lands in a similar spot in running to that galloper. Can he outsprint Bustler/Amelia’s Jewel if they make their runs from similar positions? My answer is no, but no surprises if he proves me wrong.

Great race. Great crop.

Race 8 – 4:45PM FURPHY – RAILWAY STAKES (1600 METRES)

7. Alaskan God – 10. Karli’s Karma – 11. Last Of The Line – 16. Trix Of The Trade

Alaskan God

Not perturbed by the barrier draw, I’m more than happy to be in the camp of our potential next star in the big one (Not the SJ Miller trained horse, although he is going to be a star, the G1 Railway Stakes).

I’ve watched the replay of the Asian Beau enough to convince myself he is the one from that race, a race which traditionally produces the winner of the Railway Stakes, to be following. Went in 1st up without a trial, got a mile off them, was still locked away on straightening when Trix Of The Trade was out and in clear galloping room and thought he was taking huge ground late of that galloper late before flattening out over the last 75m, which only suggests to me there is absolutely improvement to come. Gets out at the top of the straight I think he beats him home and to reel off a sub 11 sec L200m (the best of the entire meeting at his first trip to the races without a trial mind you), it’s no secret he has returned in frighteningly good order for his opposition moving forward. Chris will know to give himself a chance he will need to keep these horses within striking distance, it is a capacity field and from a wide draw he will need some luck to slot himself into that 3 wide moving line, but if he can find a back to take him into the corner, he could go straight past these and announce himself WA’s next potential star of the turf, I hope he does.

2.5 Units WIN

Karli’s Karma

Could not have found her way into this race off the back of her remarkable emergence any better or with a better set-up. Some will knock her on fact she wasn’t ticked the box of yet of running a strong mile, which is fair enough, but she won’t find herself in a race of this significance a better opportunity to do so. Missed a start in the Asian Beau (which we know now full well she could have won), had no right to split Massimo and Resortman in the Lee Steere at the weights and conditions of that race and not winning allowed her to get her rating up enough to not just get into the race, but get in on the minimum as well. Drops 4kgs off that huge effort down to 53, lobs one out one back from the draw, she’s going to be the first to go after and get past the leading pair, can she sustain it at the end of a strong run 1600m that is the query. Won’t get a better chance to do it with no weight on her back.

1 Unit WIN

Last Of The Line my roughie if I was to throw one out. Think with some luck from that horror draw he could land midfield 3 deep cover and its game on, gets a 5kg swing on Searchin Rocs from last Saturday being beaten 1L and is not only a 7 day spin around beast (2 wins and a 2nd from 3 attempts) but a high pressure beast (that Detonator win was one of the fastest run 1800m races at Ascot you’ll ever see). Primed to a run a huge race.

Race 9 – 5:23PM $4MILLION QUOKKA SLOT RACE 15TH APRIL 2023 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

9. Above The Peg – 8. Tri For Us – 3. Mr Delegator – 11. Piccola Signora

Very difficult way to end the day.

Thought Above The Peg was unsuited last start by not only the track bias but also just got a long way back in a race where they let Big Screen get away with a fair bit bowling along at some moderate fractions up front. Was on the back of the wrong horse, still searching for runs on straightening but loved the way when he did get out how he got through the line over the last 100m. Up to the mile, drawn a gate to hold a spot in a race with really solid tempo engaged on paper, I marked him favourite and you’re seeing each way, that’ll get me for a small investment.

If they are running on down the middle by this stage of the day (Hopefully Alaskan God has ripped past them in the race previous), I think it brings the Durrant pair Tri For Us and Tena Koutou and Piccola Signora into the race. Thought Piccola Signora was a sneaky good run fresh and loved the two trials prior, might be a start or two too soon but convinced she is going very well. Happy if that is the case to play some value around the above 3 mentioned runners, but no real desperate interest in the last.

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Home James 1 Unit WIN/Soaring Solo 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 2 Truly Inspired 3.5 Units WIN
• Race 5 Sniparoochy 3.5 Units WIN @$2.60+ BSP
• Race 6 Devoted 3 Units WIN/Comes A Time 1 Unit WIN
• Race 8 Alaskan God 2.5 Units WIN/Karli’s Karma 1 Unit WIN

12.5 Units locked in, 16 unit outlay if Sniparoochy gets a little wobble in the betting and we see some money elsewhere. Day 2 of The Pinnacles, how good.