The official team lists are in for Rabbitohs vs Roosters, and Trent Robinson has made sweeping changes by resting a host of stars ahead of the finals, while Sam Walker is also sidelined following ankle surgery. South Sydney have made changes of their own, with Latrell Mitchell starting at centre, Jye Gray moving to fullback and Jai Arrow surprisingly named at five-eighth for his 100th Rabbitohs appearance.
Biggest Winners – Rabbitohs
Alex Johnston
Johnston immediately stands out against a dramatically weakened Roosters side. He has scored 10 tries in his past nine games at Allianz Stadium, making him the obvious Rabbitohs player to target.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Latrell Mitchell
Mitchell moves from the bench into the starting side at centre and should get significantly more attacking involvement than he did in his return against Gold Coast.
Our Tip: Latrell Mitchell – Anytime Try Scorer
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Campbell Graham
The Roosters are resting Tedesco, Billy Smith, Robert Toia and Mark Nawaqanitawase, leaving an almost completely rebuilt backline. Graham therefore gets a very appealing matchup on the right wing.
Our Tip: Campbell Graham – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Rabbitohs
Tallis Duncan
Duncan is being rested after experiencing hamstring tightness following the Titans game, although South Sydney expect him back for the opening week of the finals.
Betting Impact: Cameron Murray’s role at lock looks particularly important against a Roosters side missing several regular forwards.
Cody Walker
Walker is unusually named on the interchange, with Jai Arrow starting at five-eighth. NRL.com says Walker will enter the game after kick-off.
Betting Impact: Avoid Walker’s traditional attacking overs given the uncertainty surrounding his minutes and role.
Matt Dufty
Jye Gray gets the fullback jersey while Dufty moves back to the interchange.
Betting Impact: Gray is the cleaner player-prop option because he’s guaranteed the starting fullback role.
Biggest Winners – Roosters
Daniel Tupou
Tupou returns from the shoulder injury that has kept him out for five matches. With so many established Roosters backs being rested, he’s suddenly the most experienced finisher in the side.
Our Tip: Daniel Tupou – Anytime Try Scorer
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Cody Ramsey
James Tedesco is being rested, leaving Ramsey to again deputise at fullback. His increased involvement from No.1 makes him the Roosters back I’d prefer outside Tupou.
Our Tip: Cody Ramsey – Anytime Try Scorer
Benaiah Ioelu
Reece Robson is being rested, giving Ioelu the starting hooking position. That’s a significant boost to his expected workload.
Our Tip: Benaiah Ioelu – Over Tackles
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Biggest Losers – Roosters
Roosters Backline
This is the biggest team-list story of the game.
James Tedesco, Billy Smith, Robert Toia and Mark Nawaqanitawase are all being rested, while Sam Walker is unavailable after ankle surgery. Daly Cherry-Evans is also being rested.
Betting Impact: South Sydney’s try-scorer and team-total markets become significantly more attractive.
Roosters Forward Rotation
Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson and Siua Wong are also being rested, while the interchange contains potential debutants Aston Warwick, Jake Elliott and Hayden Barton.
Betting Impact: South Sydney’s established middle forwards should have a considerable experience advantage.
Roosters Attack
The Roosters have won only 50 per cent of their games without Sam Walker between 2024 and 2026, and they’ll now be without virtually their entire first-choice spine.
Our Tip: Rabbitohs – Head-to-Head
Early Betting Verdict
This is one of the biggest team-list-driven betting swings of Round 27. The Roosters have won six of their past seven against South Sydney, but Robinson’s decision to rest a huge number of established players completely changes the matchup.
South Sydney also have plenty to play for: a victory guarantees them a home elimination final.
Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Johnston’s 10 tries from his past nine appearances at Allianz Stadium is the standout player statistic, and he’s now facing a heavily reshuffled Roosters backline.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
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Campbell Graham – Anytime Try Scorer
Graham gets a significantly softer-looking edge matchup than he would have faced against the Roosters’ first-choice backline.
Our Tip: Campbell Graham – Anytime Try Scorer
Latrell Mitchell – Anytime Try Scorer
Mitchell’s promotion into the starting side is significant. Rather than trying to predict his involvement from the interchange, we now know he’ll begin the match at centre.
Our Tip: Latrell Mitchell – Anytime Try Scorer
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Jye Gray – Anytime Try Scorer
Gray’s move to fullback should increase his touches and support-running opportunities against an inexperienced Roosters combination.
Our Tip: Jye Gray – Anytime Try Scorer
Daniel Tupou – Anytime Try Scorer
If we’re taking a Roosters scorer, Tupou is my preference. He’s back from injury and is by far the most experienced member of their reshuffled backline.
Our Tip: Daniel Tupou – Anytime Try Scorer
Benaiah Ioelu – Tackles
Ioelu gets the starting No.9 jersey with Robson rested and should see plenty of defensive work against Tatola, Koloamatangi and Murray.
Our Tip: Benaiah Ioelu – Over Tackles
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the standout bet created by the team lists.
Johnston has scored 10 tries in his past nine matches at Allianz Stadium, and the Roosters will be without Tedesco, Smith, Toia and Nawaqanitawase from their regular backline.
South Sydney also need victory to guarantee themselves a home elimination final.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
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I’d also check Johnston 2+ Tries with Sportsbet and TAB given the extent of the Roosters’ changes.
Value Bet
Campbell Graham – Anytime Try Scorer
Graham could provide better value than Johnston and Mitchell while benefiting from exactly the same matchup.
The Roosters’ reshuffled backline features Cody Ramsey, Daniel Tupou, Fetalaiga Pauga, Tommy Talau and Rex Bassingthwaighte, with Reece Foley and Toby Rodwell forming a new halves combination.
Our Tip: Campbell Graham – Anytime Try Scorer
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Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Campbell Graham – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Rabbitohs Try Scorer: Latrell Mitchell – Anytime Try Scorer
Fullback Play: Jye Gray – Anytime Try Scorer
Roosters Try Scorer: Daniel Tupou – Anytime Try Scorer
Team Market: Rabbitohs – Head-to-Head
Tackle Prop: Benaiah Ioelu – Over Tackles
Higher-Odds Play: Alex Johnston – 2+ Tries
