Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 15th January

Really competitive card of racing at Ascot this Saturday highlighted by the unreal field that awaits us in the Miss Andretti Stakes. Should be a perfect day for racing with the rail out the 11m. A bit cooler than previous weeks also won’t be a bad thing.

Race 1 – 12:43PM MAGIC MILLIONS PLATE (1200 METRES)

4. Mojo’s Luck – 6. The Great Hoya – 9. Lucky Sue – 2. El Patron

Race 2 – 1:23PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1200 METRES)

1. He’s A Sizzler – 2. Beads – 4. Trix Of The Trade – 5. Cold Shizzle

He’s A Sizzler

He’s A Sizzler picks himself here. He was undoubtedly going past both Beads and Bopping Blue last start over the 1000m when completely chopped out at the 200m (in my opinion), losing momentum and having to pick back up again when it was all too late. The rise in trip to 1200m suits him the most out of the 3 and he’s drawn a gate for Chris Parnham to keep him off the fence and get him out into open air where he can put on display that powerful turn of foot he possesses, very keen.

3 Units WIN

Trix Of The Trade the X factor runner coming here 1st up. Went down half a length He’s A Sizzler over this distance last prep giving him 2kgs, before meeting him at set weights and easily accounting for him over the 1400m. He meets him 2.5kgs better than that narrow loss at 1200m here and he was solid without being world beating in a very fast 1000m trial. Going to get a lovely run from the gate and could make things interesting.

Race 3 – 2:05PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Kick A Goal Son – 1. Express Time – 2. Wine Night – 6. Keep Your Feet

Express Time was unlucky not to win 1st up in a strong rating Westspeed race, chopped out at the 150m, and still reeled off the race fastest L200m to just miss Scandolo, who has since franked that form big time running 2nd in the Fitzpatrick Plate. Generally runs very well 2nd up and should be able to amble across to the breeze outside Fiery Water or even take it up if Pike doesn’t try lead on him. I had queries on her at the 1100m last start, but she put that to bed and although she hasn’t raced with success at the 1200m, I think she’s come back a better horse and it was pose her a problem.

Kick A Goal Son was a really solid win at Pinjarra getting the better of Sea Waif late, 2L better than CL3 average. Sea Waif has since come out and run 2nd in a very similar race last Saturday, franking the form. He drops 1.5kgs at the weights, but does also drop 200m in trip. I think he will acquit himself well, especially with CJP sticking over Fiery Water, its a very winnable race but I won’t be diving in.

Fiery Water is a hard to trust galloper for the Durrant yard who in the lead up to this fresh assignment put in a very nice trial with CJP in the saddle, who opts to stick with KAGS. Went to the line under a hold in good time alongside London Miss, who ran well in a strong 60+ last Saturday. Pike has had 3 rides for no wins, likely bounces him out to the front if he can hold out Express Time but given how many times this horse has gone under after being well in, in the market, I can’t trust him.

Chances don’t end there, no bet.

Race 4 – 2:50PM BELHUS RACING STABLES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

1. Vane Tempest – 6. Agent Kensington – 2. Bedouin Belle – 3. Double Jeopardy

On form alone, Vane Tempest should be winning here but this looks a messy race. Ran proper time down the straight last start when beaten 1L Mantelli (since 2nd last Saturday) and Material Witness, 0.2L off Queen Of Soul when wide throughout and 2.3L off Angelic Miss 4 starts back. That’s proper form for a race of this nature, the horse is just so hard to trust? Should find the breeze here outside Double Jeopardy but likely goes up short enough. Hardest to beat but won’t be diving in.

Agent Kensington and Bedouin Belle next best. No bet. 

Race 5 – 3:30PM ASCEND SALES TROPHIES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Billy Ain’t Silly – 2. Tinsnip – 6. Big Screen – 3. Resortman

Billy Ain’t Silly

Billy Ain’t Silly went around fresh in one of the strongest 72+ 1200m contests I’ve seen, in a race where they’ve gone 6.5L faster than benchmark to the 600m, they were flying. Billy travelled up to the corner like he was going to have a say but his condition just gave away late. With Big Screen to take it up here and the additional speed from out-wide, Billy should get a lovely run here just tucked in behind the speed. Is 2/2 2nd up, will have taken plenty of fitness out of that 1st up assignment and last time he went to 1400m was only beaten by G1 winner Graceful Girl. He’s got proper form and expecting a much improved performance here.

1.25 Units WIN

Tinsnip

Tinsnip has never won fresh, but in 2 950m trials has trialled the house down. The first one cruised up to them and ambled past under a strangle, before the most recent hit the line very nicely in a very fast trial behind Clairvoyance. Should get a gun run from the gate for most in-form jock in the state and definitely be playing a part in the finish.

0.75 Units WIN

Resortman at the crossroads, blinkers off suggests they are going to ride him more conservative but does he have the turn of foot to settle back and run over the top of these? Not sure exactly how he’s going but can definitely win with the right run.

If Big Screen gets it all his own way and doesn’t get any company come across from out-wide, he could steal this on the corner down in the weights. Had to do it tough in the breeze in the Mandurah Cup but the way he fought late showed he is still going absolutely super. I do think he might find 1 or 2 better.

Race 6 – 4:05PM STRIKER INDOOR SPORTS LEEMING HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

6. Fashion Queen – 4. Mr Mt Walker – 7. Great Charade – 1. Ginger Baker

Fashion Queen

Fashion Queen really stands out on the program here. Comes out of a race over the mile when 2nd behind Cable Guy, from a very wide gate settled a mile of them, had to really dice her way through runners once they straightened, savaging the line to just miss on the line. From the gate, Pike can position her up handier here off what looks a moderate tempo, and her turn of foot if out in clear air is just better than these, really hard to beat.

2.5 Units WIN

Race 7 – 4:45PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

6. Trade War – 10. Pro Is Here – 2. Cheval De Vaga – 8. Benji’s

Trade War

Another horse going huge at the moment for Michael Lane. Was cutting CDV down at a rate of knots last start after being a victim of an unsuitable race shape, and now gets an extra 100m under his belt and a 3.5kg weight swing for a 0.7L defeat. The only thing that hurts is the draw. If Chris can hop on the back of a horse like Benji’s, and get a cart into the race, I genuinely think it could be lights out, but a horse to take Chris into the race from back in the field, spotting CDV many lengths on straightening, could be the difficult aspect. Happy to take a gamble.

1.5 Units WIN

Cheval De Vaga is 3 on the bounce, last start best win of the lot. Got across from barrier 14 of 14, visually it looked like they were going quicker than they actually were, other jockeys caught napping? Far too good once they straightened for Cristal Dane, horse is flying. Goes up 4kgs at the weights but does get Pike and a map where he’s likely to land box seat getting a lovely trail behind the leaders. The concerns for me are the rise up to the 1500m, which when complimented by the added weight, doesn’t fill me to the brim with confidence about taking the $3.10, marked $4.50 and still well and truly in the game.

The Albany traveller Pro Is Here is primed to run a big race on debut in town. Only very lightly raced, with 2 wins from 6 starts, but have loved the way he has been embarrassing them down in the Great Southern carrying big weights and his racing pattern makes him even more likeable. The 1500m is the next question to answer but should get it easy enough up top here for McGruddy and drops 4.5kgs at the weights from that dominant win at Mt Barker, keen he runs very well if he can handle the 1500m.

Race 8 – 5:20PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

5. Big Bada Boom – 7. Chili Is Hot – 6. Beat The Bro – 1. Bogart

Big Bada Boom

Big Bada Boom has run some extraordinary races this prep. Displayed no early speed last start when settling uncharacteristically back in the field, still hit the line nicely but was never in it, also didn’t help being held up behind slowing runners essentially the entirety of the straight when looked to be travelling into it beautifully. Start prior took no competitive part in the race after bucking at the start but still ran home in the race fastest L600/200m splits. There’s no genuine early toe in this, hope Brad can have him jump cleanly and take up a spot on speed, from there I think he’ll be hard to get past. Hard to trust given some of his racing quirks he’s shown this prep but the team is flying.

1 Unit WIN

Beat The Bro was always gonna be tough from the draw in the Mandurah Cup on what was a predominately on-speed day, finished that race off hard considering. Will get back from the gate here and CJP will likely have to put him into the race from the 600m. 400m up in trip, he’s rock hard fit but is he dynamic enough to get winding into the race from a long way out and win over this journey? Not convinced.

Chili Is Hot wasn’t strong enough late for my liking last start in the La Trice over what I thought was a very suitable 1800m. Sat box seat, slow tempo, maybe raced tight for a short space once they straightened but once she got out she really didn’t let rip. Prefer BTB and BBB.

Race 9 – 5:55PM MISS ANDRETTI STAKES (1100 METRES)

6. Miss Conteki – 9. Iseered Iseered – 8. Clairvoyance – 10. River Beau

Miss Conteki

Miss Conteki there is no real need to get into her last start win in the Summer Scorcher. Remarkable. 32.84 L600m, 10.86 L200m, those are ridiculous splits. She has a turn of foot nothing else in this field possesses and if she gets the right run in transit will be storming all over the top of these once again. But there are a few more layers to this race.

2.5 Units WIN

Iseered Iseered

Iseered Iseered is a very, very good sprinter. Unbelievably unlucky in the Colonel Reeves and the Winterbottom when essentially blocked in both those runs for the entirety of the straight. Finished 2L off Elite Street when absolutely bolting for a run carrying 2kgs less than him (57.5kgs) and now gets in to a listed race, fresh on the minimum with CJP replacing Mitch in the saddle. CJP will have strict instructions to keep him off the fence and if he can get him into that 2-3 deep moving line, he’s going to be a big force in this race, especially if Miss Conteki is a few lengths further back on straightening.

1 Unit WIN

Clairvoyance the boom horse on resumption. 5 from 6 and runs figures that very few can. Has been out for a long time with bone issues and has since had the 1 trial, in very slick time breaking 56 for the 950m at Lark Hill. Was a very nice piece of work and likely finds the top here with the lack of genuine speed in the race. Off a 9 month lay off, I am wary though, and $2.50 will not get me whatsoever, at prices she can simply win without me. Isn’t bombproof (as the defeat to River Beau showed at $1.40) and in a race with 2 other very impressive sprinters, thats far too skinny.

Will be shocked if anything else were to win this. River Beau with the right run a good place chance.

Race 10 – 6:25PM CROWN SPORTS BAR HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Universal Pleasure – 7. Vital Blast – 11. Phoneme – 4. Reign Of Fire

Universal Pleasure

The only genuine leader in the last, with Pike in the saddle, priced at $3.80 I’m happy to bet here Universal Pleasure. Thought she was fantastic in the Epiona when breezing and being run down right on the past but Pike should very easily be able to find the rail here and control. He’s been riding leaders much better recently and think this race shape looks super for him and her.

2 Units WIN

Vital Blast

Vital Blast maps an absolute treat here and thought the run last start behind Chantorque and Son Son in an uber strong race was huge. You only need to go back 3 starts and he’s been beaten 0.2L by Notorious One, proper form for this. Can park up closer to the speed here from the draw with cover and with a field position advantage over Reign Of Fire, he’s my main danger.

1 Unit WIN

Staking Plan

Race 2 He’s A Sizzler 3 Units WIN

Race 5 Billy Ain’t Silly 1.25 Units WIN/Tinsnip 0.75 Units WIN

Race 6 Fashion Queen 2.5 Units WIN

Race 7 Trade War 1.5 Units WIN

Race 8 Big Bada Boom 1 Unit WIN

Race 9 Miss Conteki 2.5 Units WIN/Iseered Iseered 1 Unit WIN

Race 10 Universal Pleasure 2 Units WIN/Vital Blast 1 Unit WIN

16.5 Units Staked.

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