Ascot Railway Stakes Day Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 20th November

Railway Stakes Day is here and what a day Perth has turned out for us. 28 degrees, not a cloud in the sky, Good 4 track, terrific conditions. The card itself is actually quite tricky, still many bets to be had but erring on the side of caution, the fields are deep this day every year and today is no exception.

Race 1 – 12:05PM TOURISM WA TROPHY (2200 METRES)

1. Pure Devotion – 2. Black Shadow – 3. Reliable Star – 7. Yadreamin

Race 2 – 12:45PM MAGIC MILLIONS-CRYSTAL SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)

4. Left The Building – 6. Revitup – 2. Man Crush – 1. Bleecker Street

Race 3 – 1:25PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

1. Brave Angel – 10. My Squeeze Louise – 12. Night Session – 6. Jarman

Brave Angel

Brave Angel finds the weakest race she has faced in some time here. Really liked the last start effort when running the 2nd fastest L200 splits of the race in a 66+ over the mile and now steps out to the 1800m (she’s a listed winner at this track/trip) in a 59+ Graduation. Does get some extra weight to lug for her troubles but I just think she’s classier than these, Carbery can land her 1-1 box seating here from the draw and she’s going to take the power of holding out.

2 Units WIN

Race 4 – 2:05PM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Proconsent – 6. Red Publisher – 5. Big Screen – 10. Koranis

Proconsent

Proconsent loomed as one of the bets of the day at $3.20-$3.30 but the $2.60 on offer now is skinny. Was huge last start when flashing late to finish 1.5L off Comfort Me who in my opinion if they drew a gate would run top 4-5 in the Railway Stakes. If you line up the form through that it’s proper, proper form. Drawn a gate for Pike to lob midfield with a back to follow in a weaker race, I can see him picking them up late, 3rd up ready to peak on Railway Day.

2 Units WIN @$3.20+ SP

Red Publisher at massive odds can run a race. Maley has had the apprentice on without any intention at his last few to drop some points for this with the senior now back on in the easiest grade he’s faced in some time. Could be worth a few sheckles at a mad price Betfair SP.

Race 5 – 2:45PM TABTOUCH-PLACID ARK STAKES (1200 METRES)

6. Flying Missile – 2. Ain’t No Other Man – 5. Thomas Magnum – 11. Sparkling Blue

Race 6 – 3:25PM CARBINE CLUB OF W.A. STAKES (1400 METRES)

10. Hot Zed – 11. Son Of A God – 3. Watch Me Dance – 7. Vital Silver

Race 7 – 4:05PM SKY RACING-W.A. GUINEAS (1600 METRES)

13. Treasured Star – 2. It’sarayday – 5. He’s A Lucky Lad – 6. Pale Rider

Treasured Star

No favours at $2.45, but think Treasured Star for Pike from the gun draw is going to be winning the Guineas. On watching the replay of the Burgess Queen where Buzzoom found the split Treasured Star went for a fraction earlier and bulldozed her on the way through, I think if Pike gets clear room and they both get the same runs through she was winning that race. This time, with tactical gate speed Pike can be flexible with where he wants to land her with Buzzoom right out the back. Blinkers on for a G & A Williams Grand Final is always ominous, she looks primed to take this out and think she could win and win well. Am already invested myself, $2.45 is short, happy to get involved at anything above $2.60 units wise.

3 Units WIN @$2.60+ SP

Race 8 – 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3-RAILWAY STAKES (1600 METRES)

16. Western Empire – 12. Notorious One – 9. Kay Cee – 6. Comfort Me

Race 9 – 5:20PM CROWN PERTH-JUNGLE MIST CLASSIC (1200 METRES)

11. Angelic Miss – 4. Chantorque – 5. Chili Is Hot – 6. Sheza Chalmer

Angelic Miss

Think the market will miss Angelic Miss. If you watch her last run out of that Bright Diamond race she was the far superior run of the two, by far. Yes, barrier 1 could get a little sticky from 3 back the fence for her in run, but if Parnham can navigate a way through before it’s too late I think she can explode, proper Group level turn of foot on her. Bullish that if Parnham finds the splits when he needs them, she wins.

2 Units WIN

Chantorque

Going to have something small saving on Chantorque. 1st up drew widest, carried the 60kgs out of that same form race as above and thought she stuck on really well to be beaten less than 3L. Finds a terrific map, drops 3.5kgs at the weights (3kgs off the favourite, who is a third of the price) and will have come on from that fresh run. The on-speed runner I’m keen to have something on. Class horse on her day when she is up and firing.

0.5 Units WIN

Sheza Chalmer and Chili Is Hot go in quaddies, neither would surprise with the right runs.

Race 10 – 5:57PM DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

11. God Has Chosen – 8. Timely Outburst – 2. False Statement – 12. Mercanto

God Has Chosen

Hoof abscess aside, I think this galloper for Lindsey Smith is a proper, proper horse. Is coming off a slight setback and is dropping in trip which isn’t ideal but from the gate Pike can try lob a couple pairs closer in running than when he settled back in the field, came out 4 wide 600m out and toyed with them last start in that 60+. Has genuine gears and if Pike can find a back to take him into the race then even with all the knocks I think he might just be too good as he powers through the grades. $2.80 I’m not willing to take and may even get shorter with the “Pike in the last” punters factor, especially if he’s ridden a stack of winners to this point. $3.30+ is the minimum price I’ll be happy to take units with.

3 Units WIN @$3.30+ SP

Timely Outburst

Just never suited fresh when a little tardy away and caught back and wide with the apprentice. Has consistently put up figures that would win this race and benefits hugely from the scratching of Double Jeopardy this morning who was the only other speed influence. Hopwood should now be able to cross to the fence with relative ease and from there he looks like she is going to take the power of running down back in her preferred on-speed role.

1 Unit WIN

False Statement goes in quaddies. Absolutely flying and is well above my price, just don’t love the apprentice on and the gate given he’s going to go right back to the rear. Wouldn’t surprise to see him storm over the top of them late at a massive price.

Staking Plan

Race 3 Brave Angel 2 Units WIN

Race 4 Proconsent 2 Units WIN @$2.60+ SP

Race 7 Treasured Star 3 Units WIN @$2.60+ SP

Race 9 Angelic Miss 2 Units WIN/Chantorque 0.5 Units WIN

Race 10 God Has Chosen 3 Units WIN @$3.30+ SP/Timely Outburst 1 Unit WIN

5.5 Units locked in, potential for 13.5 Units depending on some SP’s. Good luck all.

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