We now know the two finalists in the 2026 Australian Open. On Saturday night at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia, the number one seed Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus will face the fifth seed Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan.
Both players are major champions from the past. Sabalenka is a four-time grand slam champion, as she won the the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open, the 2024 and 2025 United States Open. It is interesting that all four of Sabalenka’s grand slam titles have come on hard courts and all four have come in the last three years.
On Thursday in the first of two Australian Open semifinals, we saw greatness from Sabalenka’s game in a commanding 6-2, 6-3 win over world number 12 Elina Svitolina of Ukraine. Sabalenka broke Svitolina four times in seven opportunities, and won 71% of her second serve points. By reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open, Svitolina returns to the top 10 in the world. It is interesting that Svitolina is now 0-4 in grand slam semifinals. She previously reached the women’s final four at the 2019 Wimbledon, 2019 United States Open, and 2023 Wimbledon. However, she could not get to the final on each occasion.
Rybakina’s major title came at Wimbledon in 2022. In Thursday’s other semifinal, it was a much more difficult test for Rybakina, as she defeated Jessica Pegula of the United States 6-3, 7-6. Rybakina won a tight second set tiebreak by a score of 9-7. Pegula only won 37% of her second serve points, while Rybakina had six aces compared to two for Pegula.
Sabalenka and Rybakina know each other very well. They have faced each other 14 times before with Sabalenka winning eight times. Sabalenka’s 2023 Australian Open final win came over Rybakina by a score of 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
