2022 AFL Finals Week 1 Preview: Our Selections

The finals are here and our AFL analyst has taken a look at each game and has put together his selections.

BRISBANE (2.14) V RICHMOND (1.74) – 7.20pm Thursday night, Gabba.

It’s an out of form team in Brisbane with the big advantage of its home deck against the Tigers who have found form late in the season.

These teams met in Round 21 and at half time the Lions looked home leading by six goals. At half-time, Damian Hardwick switched Noah Balta back to full back and big man Ben Miller played second ruck and as a forward. From that moment the Tigers haven’t looked back, running over the top of Brisbane and then easily defeating Hawthorn and Essendon.

They also have the luxury of a near full list and superstar Dustin Martin is set to return from injury. The Lions are also without brilliant forward Cam Rayner who has been suspended. Chris Fagan will ask his charges for the supreme effort.

They would need forwards Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood to have a big night. Their star rover Lachie Neale will prove to be a headache for the Tigers. The Tigers lost to Brisbane in a qualifying final at the Gabba in 2020 but have won 18 of their last 21 against the Lions.

THE BETS:

Richmond -15.5 points $2.47
Richmond -4.5/Over 177.5 $3.50
Most goals Tom Lynch (Richmond) $2.85
Noah Cumberland (Richmond) $10
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MELBOURNE ($1.47) v SYDNEY SWANS ($2.75) – 7.50pm Friday MCG

This is an interesting game. Sydney have won their past seven games which included a defeat of Collingwood handing them their only loss from its past 13 games.

Statistically, they are one of the better tackling and pressure teams in the competition, and those factors are key facets that premiership teams invariably boast.

They have a young emerging list with several great on-ballers led by Heeney, Mills, Warner and Parker plus they boast a strong defence. Tom Papley also has found form and veteran Lance Franklin can destroy an opposition with his amazing kicking.

They take on last year’s premiers the Demons on their home turf. The Dees looked awesome against the Lions in Round 23 but they also were when they played them mid-year. Oliver, Petracca and Gawn looked in great touch. When these teams played in Round 12 Sydney prevailed by 12 points in what was considered an upset.

Melbourne led clearly early but Sydney hauled them back in before the Demons regained their ascendancy. Sydney kicked the last four goals of the match. It should be another tight contest. Melbourne looks under the odds while the Swans appeal as a value bet.

THE BETS:

Sydney +12.5 points $1.90
TRIBET Any other result (Margin no more than 15.5 points either way) $2.63
Most goals: Christian Petracca $18 & Tom Papley $11
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GEELONG ($1.39) v COLLINGWOOD ($3.05) – 4.35pm Saturday MCG

The front runners in the AFL for most of the season Geelong take on the competition’s backmarkers Collingwood who thrive on giving their opponents a start and running them down.

Nobody could have forecasted Collingwood finishing this high on the ladder and this takes the pressure off them. In contrast all the pressure is on the Cats as their finals record hasn’t been good under Chris Scott. Since they won the flag in 2011 they have won seven of 22 finals.

It looks a better Cats team this season but this still needs to be proven in September.

The Magpies play a frenetic fast brand of football which is a style which worries the Cats.

The Cats have won their past 13 matches and their past three comfortably against the Saints, the Suns and the hapless Eagles. Is this the best way to tune up for the finals? The last time these teams met was in Round 3 when Geelong defeated Collingwood by 13 points.

THE BETS:

Collingwood +16.5 points at $1.90
TRIBET (Any other result) $2.81
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FREMANTLE DOCKERS $1.51 v WESTERN BULLDOGS $2.58 – 8.10pm Optus Stadium

The Dockers take on the Bulldogs in a fifth versus eight clash which should be a win for the home team BUT the Dogs are the competition’s biggest tease and shape as a major threat in this clash.

They have won three of their last four clashes at Perth Stadium with their only blip in last year’s Grand Final against the Demons. They defeated the Dockers on their home turf last year by 28 points. They fell into the finals and the Dockers defeated them at Marvel Stadium in Round 21.

The Bulldogs’ back six looks vulnerable but their forward line is on the improve. In 2016 they began their charge to the premiership with a win at Subiaco when they finished seventh.

The Dockers haven’t played finals since 2015 and they have injury concerns but they have one of the best defences in the competition.