2021 NFL Week 3 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

As I said in Thursday’s free preview I feel like the picks we are making are good. We just haven’t had the run of it yet but that will even itself out. All we can do is put the hard work into the research and make the +EV plays.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games so make sure to check back.

Season to date

Premium picks:

• Profit/Loss: -3.85 units
• ROI: -14%
• Strike rate: 39%

Thursday free picks:

• Profit/Loss: -6.5 units
• ROI: -52%
• Strike rate: 18%

2020/21 Season results

• Profit/Loss: +22.57 units
• ROI: 10%
• Strike rate: 50%

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

I would leave this bet to as late as you can as I think it could move to 7 or 6.5 before kick off.

I am a Justin Fields fan, but I think the Browns are just a very well built team. As mentioned already I think this line could move towards the Bears as the public money comes in. But I would still bet it at 7.5. The Bears defence is decent enough but the Browns have a lot of weapons and should be able to get it done. I am tempted to take the over in this one but for now I will leave that line. I may revisit that before kick off though.

• 2 units Browns -7.5 with TopSport 2.0 with TopSport (Waiting until late to place this one in the hope the line moves)

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

The Falcons have shown some signs of life and I really believe that Arthur Smith will work out the best way to get something out of the offence sooner rather than later. Matt Ryan has looked solid enough and the weapons are certainly there. The Giants just have no offence right now. Between Jason Garrett’s play calling and Daniel Jones’ turnovers I would happily take any semi-competent team with the points against them.

• 2 units Falcons +3 1.88 with TopSport

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

I truly have no idea how the Titans not only covered against the Seahawks, but won outright. I am going to continue to stick to my guns that this team is not great and a team with that poor of a defence should not be laying these sort of points. Jonathan Taylor has more runs inside the 10 than any other player and is yet to find the end zone. He can fix that here. The Colts can control the game on offence and play strong enough defence to beat their division rivals.

• 2 units Colts +5 2.04 with TopSport
• 1 unit Colts moneyline 3.1 with TopSport
• 1 unit Jonathan Taylor any time touchdown 2.0 with TopSport

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots

The narrative on Mac Jones is that he has played really well through two weeks. Admittedly he has been solid, but I do not believe that he has the arm or the talent to get it done against a tough defence like the Saints. He has been so unwilling to take any sort of risk and in a game like this when he is playing a legitimate team I think it will cost the Patriots. The Saints put up a lot of points in week one but did it with very few yards and I think we see a defensive battle here.

• 3 units Saints/Patriots under 42.5 1.94 with TopSport
• 1 unit Saints +2.5 2.03 with TopSport

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

A lot of what the Chargers have done in recent years has been about beating the Chiefs. While I think KC may well win this game (I refer the LA value though), I can’t believe that this game will be won by a touchdown or more. I think these teams are a lot closer than the Chargers are getting credit for and I like them a lot with the points.

• 2 units Chargers +7 1.9 with TopSport
• 1 unit Chargers moneyline 3.55 with TopSport

Expert Tips

• 2 units Browns -7.5 with TopSport 2.0 with TopSport (Waiting until late to place this one in the hope the line moves)
• 2 units Falcons +3 1.88 with TopSport
• 2 units Colts +5 2.04 with TopSport
• 1 unit Colts moneyline 3.1 with TopSport
• 1 unit Jonathan Taylor any time touchdown 2.0 with TopSport
• 3 units Saints/Patriots under 42.5 1.94 with TopSport
• 1 unit Saints +2.5 2.03 with TopSport
• 2 units Chargers +7 1.9 with TopSport
• 1 unit Chargers moneyline 3.55 with TopSport