2021 NFL Week 17 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

4 years ago - Sportingbase

First NFL weekend of the year and we come into it in some good form. The premium picks are back into the black and if we can come close to replicating last year’s January, we will be in great shape by the end of the season.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games so make sure to check back.

Season to date

Premium picks:

Profit/Loss: +5.72 units
ROI: 3%
Strike rate: 45%

Free Thursday Night Football Picks:

Profit/Loss: -13.89 units
ROI: -26%
Strike rate: 30%

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

The game of the week right here. The Chiefs are rolling though and I just can’t look past them. The Bengals have thrown in a stinker after each big win this season and this could easily be another. I expect both teams to try and get the running backs involved a lot here. But ultimately, the Chiefs defence can be the difference.

2 units Chiefs -3.5 1.86 with TopSport
1 unit Joe Mixon any time touchdown 1.80 with TopSport
1 unit Darrel Williams any time touchdown 2.40 with TopSport

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans

The Dolphins have been on a superb run, but they have not really faced much competition in that time. The Titans, particularly now they have AJ Brown back, are a big step up. The Titans still have a shot at the first seed and they can get an important win here.

2 units Titans -3 2.0 with TopSport

Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance is expected to start here, and while he is a great prospect, I am not sure he is ready to take the league by storm just yet. I expect a much more run heavy game, and therefore a faster moving clock. I just do not see this being a game filled with points. The Texans have been playing fairly well lately (relatively) and can keep this one close.

2 units Texans +13 1.88 with TopSport
1 unit Texans/49ers under 44 1.91 with TopSport
1 unit Texans moneyline 6.0 with TopSport

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

For me this comes down to Ben Roethlisberger’s lack of mobility against the incredible Browns defensive line. He is going to be hit a lot this game. The Browns offence has a lot of potential as we have already seen before, but Baker Mayfield’s mistakes have cost them lately. As long as he can play a safe game then the Browns can lean on Myles Garrett and the rest of the defence to get an important win that would almost all but knock whoever loses out of playoff contention.