Ascot Winterbottom Stakes Day Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 27th November

Winterbottom Stakes Day is going to be an absolute scorcher with temperatures expected to hit over 35 degrees on track. The rail out 6m and the lack of genuine easterly I’m planning for a relatively even pad, but when conditions are this hot Ascot can tend to play more genuinely on-speed, particularly early.

Race 1 – 12:05PM TOURISM WA TROPHY (1000 METRES)

1. The Front Bar – 4. Bopping Blue – 8. Sockoff – 2. He’s Gold

Race 2 – 12:45PM MRS MAC’S HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

5. Dom To Shoot – 1. Divine Shadow – 2. Cockney Crew – 7. Money Maher

Race 3 – 1:25PM DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. Triple Missile – 9. Secret Plan – 4. Resortman – 2. Plutocracy

Race 4 – 2:05PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES FINAL (1400 METRES)

2. Nowhiteflag – 12. Dais – 1. Holy Enchantment – 11. Classic Rogue

Nowhiteflag

I’m going to be forgiving of Nowhiteflag. Slipped when the barriers opened, couldn’t take up his favoured spot bowling along on the fence and proceeded to race really keenly early. In this race there is next to no speed engaged. Drawn 2, he steps clean and he should be able to find the top with relative ease and dictate on his terms up to the 1400m for the first time in his career. That figure he put up 1st up would win this race, and the main danger (Dais) will be back near enough to last spotting him many, many lengths on straightening. You’ll know within the first 200m if he is a winning chance and leaves the stalls clean. Even if he steps slow he can muster to the fence and still break the hearts, if he finds the rail it could be all over

3 Units WIN

Dais

Saving. Dais was very unlucky last start behind Memorable Miss in what was a strong race for the class. Went back after a change of tactics notified the stewards, didn’t get any air and was bolting behind a wall of horses and was just about a good thing beat. She maps to be near enough to last again here which can mean trouble, but she’s the X factor with the different form that I feel is stronger than the Westspeed lead ups. Was 2L off Nowhiteflag 2 starts back and gets a 3kg swing in her favour up to a trip that probably suits her more than it suits him.

1 Unit WIN

Race 5 – 2:45PM CROWN TOWERS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. God Has Chosen – 2. The Fugazi – 1. Son Son – 8. Tri For Us

Race 6 – 3:25PM TABTOUCH REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL: THE ROAD TO ASCOT (1200 METRES)

7. Scandolo – 12. Copping Points – 6. Delago Dehero – 9. Alcina

Race 7 – 4:05PM JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION TROPHY (2100 METRES)

4. Midnight Blue – 10. Stafford’s Lad – 9. Poulton Le Sands – 6. Media Baron

Race 8 – 4:45PM CROWN PERTH-WINTERBOTTOM STAKES (1200 METRES)

2. Elite Street – 16. Wilchino – 8. Cup Night – 15. Graceful Girl

Elite Street

I just think, simply, he is the best horse in this race. His prep has been perfect, we potted him last start in his final tune up for this from barrier 15 where he just ambled up to them and cruised past in a conservative 2nd gear. One year ago, he sat 3 wide no cover just in behind a breakneck tempo and still put them away and I think that right now he’s a better horse than when he did that. The gate is perfect for Rawiller to just blend him into that 3 wide moving line with cover and once they straighten for home if he’s within 3L of Wilchino with her no doubt tiring late I just cannot see her holding him out. Hoping he goes back to back, out and out superstar.

3.5 Units WIN

Cup Night

I’m having a speculative unit here on Cup Night, who is just about the most bombproof fresh sprinter in WA. His most recent trials, particularly his most recent on the 15th of November was ominous that he is back to his best and ready to run his traditionally massive fresh run. His last 3 fresh runs he has won the best edition of the Northam Stakes arguably ever seen, flogged Valour Road in the Scenic Blast and was a better run than Red Can Man in the HG Bolton. The gate is far from bad with his race pattern, Carbery probably finds the back of an Elite Street in that 3 wide line taking him right into the race and think at $6.50 a drum he looks a great place bet (now no doubt runs 4th).

1 Unit PLACE

Race 9 – 5:20PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

6. Beret – 4. Bogart – 1. Lorentinio – 8. Bruce Almighty

Beret

Beret is absolutely flying and think he can be the beneficiary of what looks to be a seriously hot tempo here in the last. He landed in front by circumstance last start, and although it was an on-pace day, his ability to run the 2nd fastest L200m split of the race after leading them from start to finish over the 1400m just highlights how well this guy is going. With the speed engaged here, anticipating CJP can lob him just off midfield with some cover letting it all unfold and he’s the one they’re going to have to be holding out late.

2.5 Units WIN

Bogart

Polarising horse, but thought his trials leading into this fresh assignment, particularly the most recent, was outstanding. He’s won every race he’s ever won in his career 1st up and think his platform and the way he’s going by his trials, he could have come back the best he’s ever been. Could is the big word here, but I can’t ignore especially with Pike on midfield getting that suck run from a similar spot Beret will be in running. Polarising, but can really turn it on when he wants to.

1 Unit WIN

Staking Plan

Race 4 Nowhiteflag 3 Units WIN/Dais 1 Unit WIN

Race 8 Elite Street 3.5 Units WIN/Cup Night 1 Unit PLACE

Race 9 Beret 2.5 Units WIN/Bogart 1 Unit WIN

12 Units Staked.

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