Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 16th October

Terrific card of racing at Ascot today where some short-priced favourites look super hard to beat. Track has been playing perfectly so far this season but could pay to take note of any early patterns, especially over the first couple of races on the day. Good 4

Race 1 – 12:36PM HAPPY 70TH BIRTHDAY REG BARTLE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Hardly Ever – 9. Dadirra – 2. Devoted – 6. Plemont

Dadirra

Looks very talented, and has gears. The trial in March I thought was superb then so unlucky on debut when bolting for a run and badly held up numerous times in the straight. Raced on-speed at latest trial and once she got to the top they didn’t get near he, with the stablemate in 2nd who is no slouch. Brilliant use of the claim to lead here with 52kgs without a lot of pressure for Beaux who is riding well of late, especially for this stable. The winner if Hardly Ever doesn’t get out or its really hard to make ground early like it can be at times at Ascot. Market has missed her.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

Hardly Ever hardest to beat and one of the spruik horses of the upcoming carnival, serious motor. Debut win in a handicap from last was just extraordinary, running some incredibly L600m splits. Problem is I can only map him landing 3 back the fence needing some luck to go his way, makes it tough especially if its hard to make considerable ground early.

Race 2 – 1:19PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

1. Roman Flirt – 7. Regal City – 6. Secret Pearl – 2. Baramagic

Race 3 – 1:55PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HEAT 1 (1200 METRES)

2. Image Keeper – 3. Flicka’s Chance – 6. Smashing – 8. Winsalot

Race 4 – 2:44PM SEACORP HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Staralign – 4. Son Of Bacchus – 6. No Apology – 5. Rebel Knight

Staralign

Super win at Kal and is in super form! Won that race in time 7L faster than 66+ grade, which is an enormous performance! Loses Pike but gains Pontiff (since changed to McGruddy which is no issue whatsoever) and think they might roll forward here. Loves Ascot, giving a horse like Karijini Aurora too much of a head start if they go choose to go back is the only reason I can see him getting beat here.

1 Unit WIN

Race 5 – 3:27PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

6. Spritely Star – 9. My Fury – 10. Special Picture – 1. Outback Jack

Spritely Star

No interest at the $1.75 but will be betting up at anything even money (don’t think we will see it). This horse is as progressive as they come, the fresh win at Northam was effortless defeating Buzzoom who came out and won in a track gallop Wednesday. She holds a nomination for the Railway Stakes which shows just how high an opinion the stable has of her. Maps to stalk the main, if you can call it that, danger in My Fury and she should be winning. $2+ and we are betting up.

5 Units WIN @$2.00+ SP

Race 6 – 4:05PM BRAVA MENTO 35 YEAR RECORD HOLDER HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Triple Missile – 5. Vadette De Star – 1. Double Jeopardy – 4. Forest War

Triple Missile

Triple Missile, with the tactical advantage on Vadette De Star, can be blousing these 1st up. The trial was terrific under the Pontiff who isn’t the lightest of jockeys and love the 4yo’s that return off the back of terrific 3yo form. Maps to land in front of the danger in running and with his turn of foot, fair play to her if she can catch him spotting him a start. Flies fresh, best of the day.

4 Units WIN

Race 7 – 4:42PM FURPHY – R.S. CRAWFORD STAKES (1000 METRES)

4. Stageman – 10. River Beau – 2. Indian Pacific – 1. Elite Street

Stageman

1st up. Trial outstanding! Has had a habit in the past of stepping slowly but jumped with them, held a spot and careered away from them late under a vice-like Pike hold in sizzling time. Electric fresh horse, won the Black Heart Bart 1st up over the 1200m last prep and think a high pressure 1000m fresh off a big break is an even better set-up for him here. Drawn to sit in the moving line if he can jump with them and can blouse these late.

1 Unit WIN

River Beau

Really like this horse. Trial as good if not arguably better than Stageman’s and is going to hold tactical field position on that runner on the back of Mervyn. He’s a high pressure beast, absorbs hot tempos and sprints off them and now gets down to a weight he hasn’t raced with for a long time. Obvious knock is fresh record but the trial was terrific and he looks to have come back in a big way. If Mervyn wobbles off the corner and he gets the split up the inside, he’s going to be having a say I feel.

0.5 Units WIN

Race 8 – 5:18PM CROWN PERTH – NORTHERLY STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Valour Road – 5. Kay Cee – 11. Dance Music – 10. Last Of The Line

Race 9 – 5:55PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

12. Real Charisma – 5. Em Tee Aye – 6. Beret – 9. Island Missile

Staking Plan

Race 1 Dadirra 0.5 Units EACH WAY

Race 4 Staralign 1 Unit WIN

Race 5 Spritely Star 5 Units WIN @$2.00+ SP

Race 6 Triple Missile 4 Units WIN

Race 7 Stageman 1 Unit WIN/River Beau 0.5 Units WIN

7.5 Units Staked, potential for 12.5.

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